Anxiety and uncertainty about AI replacing jobs have been running high. How can we move beyond empty warnings and exaggerated predictions to answer this question with data? A great way to do this is to look at an industry where AI capabilities are at the absolute forefront and adoption has been exceptionally fast: software engineering.
In this article, we argue that there is already sufficient evidence to refute the narrative that once AI capabilities reach a certain threshold, it will lead to mass layoffs. Since this is the case even in an industry with very few regulatory barriers, most other occupations are likely to have even stronger buffers.
We also have a good understanding of why. We can think of many knowledge-work jobs, including software development, as a "decide-execute-deliver sandwich." AI compresses the "execute" layer—the middle layer of the sandwich—but the other two layers strongly resist automation, and capability improvements alone cannot overcome this.
Finally, we are cautiously optimistic about the future trend of demand for software engineering. This article is the first in a series; the next will discuss why, even if overall